Monday, January 18, Michigan county coronavirus data: 69 counties are now below 10% positivity rate

Sixty-nine counties now have a seven-day average positivity rate below 10% on coronavirus diagnostic tests.

The good news: this is the highest number since November 2.

The bad news: counties should ideally be at 5% positivity or lower, and there are still 62 counties above that benchmark.

Still, the numbers are pointing in the right direction and it appears at this point that Michigan has avoided a post-holiday surge.

Did Michigan dodge the winter vacation coronavirus wave?

Statewide, Michigan’s seven-day positivity rate is 6.9%. That’s the state’s seven-day average since October. The seven-day average of new cases statewide is now 2,236, down 29% from 3,136 a week ago today.

Below is a closer look at county-level data, based on metrics used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by the MDHHS has six levels — “low” plus the AE levels.

First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by state metric.

  • Level E (more than 20%): none.
  • Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale.
  • Tier C (10-15%): 13 counties, highest to lowest — Branch, Wexford, Missaukee, Lenawee, Gogebic, Oceana, Cass, St. Joseph, St. Clair, Newaygo, Tuscola, Crawford and Livingston.
  • Tier B (7-10%): 30 counties, highest to lowest — Houghton, Clare, Manistee, Shiawassee, Benzie, Alpena, Van Buren, Saginaw, Monroe, Ottawa, Calhoun, Eaton, Lapeer, Mason, Muskegon , Ingham, Macomb, Oscoda, Près Isle, Kent, Berrien, Wayne, Grand Traverse, Allegan, Huron, Kalamazoo, , Iosco, Bay and Jackson.
  • Tier A (3-7%): 33 counties — Alcona, Arenac, Osceola, Leelanau, Ionia, Gladwin, Oakland, Barry, Sanilac, Genesee, Clinton, Midland, Kalkaska, Ontonagon, Cheboygan, Montcalm, Lake, Washtenaw, Roscommon , Antrim, Ogemaw, Isabella, Emmet, Otsego, Keweenaw, Gratiot, Montmorency, Charlevoix, Mecosta, Iron, Alger, Menominee, Dickinson and Chippewa.
  • Low (less than 3%): Six counties — Delta, Luce, Marquette, Mackinac, Baraga and Schoolcraft.

The chart below lets you search for any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate from January 9-15. The graph has been modified to compare the average of the last seven days to the average of the previous week.

The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.

New cases per capita

New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.

In this metric — which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents — 61 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The threshold for level E is 150 cases per day per million population.

The levels for the other 22 counties:

  • Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Ontonagon, Marquette, Cheboygan, Osceola, Gratiot, Emmet, Menominee, Delta, Montmorency, Oscoda, Roscommon, Crawford, Ogemaw, Près Isle, Kalkaska, Chippewa, Dickinson and Schoolcraft.
  • Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Baraga.
  • Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Mackinac and Luce.
  • Low (less than 7 cases per million): Missaukee.

Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased from the previous seven days.

Current scores are based on new cases reported from January 10-16. The map below is shaded according to the six levels of the state. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported over the past seven days has increased or decreased from January 3-9.

Readers can hover their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Tip: you can drag the map with your cursor to see the whole UP)

Overall MDHHS score by region

The MDHHS assigned an overall score to each of the MI Start regions in the state, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency room visits. for symptoms of COVID-19.

As of Nov. 4, Michigan’s eight MI Start regions are at the highest level used by the state to assess coronavirus risk.

This interactive map shows these eight regions and their current scores. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.

(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is Detroit Area; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City Region 7, Jackson and Region 8, Upper Peninsula.)

Below are online databases that allow readers to search county-level data for each of the past 30 days.

Cases per day it was reported to the state

The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first fell ill a few days prior.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.

(In a few cases, a county reported a negative (decreasing) number of new daily cases, following retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In these cases, we subtracted cases of the previous date and put 0 in the reported date.)

The following table below shows new cases in the past 30 days based on symptom onset. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the lag between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.

More localized maps

Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan Department of Epidemiology, which has access to subcounty data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

The interactive maps break the state down into 10 kilometer hexagons to provide a more localized view of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to access the research project website.

The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases over the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.

You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Last daily report

On Saturday, January 16, the state reported 1,932 new coronavirus cases and 103 new deaths.

The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.

For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, visit the state’s online test finder, here, email [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. h on weekdays.

For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.

Learn more about MLive:

What worked in 2020 and what needs to work in 2021 for 12 Michigan schools

2020 was Michigan’s deadliest year on record, and COVID-19 was the No. 3 killer

For Michiganders Newly Vaccine-Eligible, Excitement High But Details Few

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