Monday, Nov. 2, Coronavirus Data by Michigan County: Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo Areas Move to Highest Risk Tier; 5 other regions are also progressing

Seven of Michigan’s eight MI Start regions have increased the scale the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.

Last week, the Upper Peninsula was the only region currently at Level E, the highest level and one that indicates dangerous levels of coronavirus transmission. Now, the Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo regions — which cover a total of 22 counties — are also in Tier E.

Meanwhile, the rest of the state moved to Tier D. Last week, the Detroit, Saginaw, Lansing, and Jackson areas were at Tier C, and the Traverse City area was at Tier B.

Our interactive map below shows the eight regions and the counties each comprises.

(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is Detroit Area; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City Region 7, Lansing and Region 8, Upper Peninsula.)

Michigan’s Department of Health and Human Services uses a six-level risk rating scale – “low” plus AE levels – and assigns an overall score to the state’s eight regions based on factors such as cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency room visits for symptoms of COVID-19.

Below, MLive applies state metrics to two specific criteria — per capita case counts and test positivity rates — to each county to help readers track coronavirus transmission in their community.

New cases per capita

Seventy-three counties now have a seven-day average of 150 or more cases per million population, the MDHHS threshold for Level E, its highest risk category. That against 60 counties in Friday morning’s message.

The statewide average is now 288 cases per million population.

Below are the state’s six risk levels for new daily cases and a breakdown of Michigan’s 83 counties.

  • Tier E (over 150 cases per million population): 73 counties, highest to lowest — Delta, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Gogebic, Iron, Baraga, Schoolcraft, Menominee, Marquette, Calhoun, Mecosta, Luce, Kent , Emmet, Ottawa, Muskegon, Gratiot, St. Joseph, Clinton, Cass, Barry, Branch, Oceana, Saginaw, Newaygo, Montcalm, Ionia, Midland, Bay, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien, Près Isle, Charlevoix, Isabella, Kalamazoo , Osceola, Gladwin, Macomb, Cheboygan, Keweenaw, Mason, Houghton, Roscommon, Genesee, Otsego, Eaton, Jackson, Livingston, Clare, Oakland, Hillsdale, Tuscola, Benzie, Monroe, Grand Traverse, Shiawassee, Iosco, Kalkaska, Ogemaw, St. Clair, Ingham, Washtenaw, Lenawee, Wayne, Algiers, Mackinac, Missaukee, Lapeer, Arenac, Antrim, Montmorency and Manistee.
  • Level D (70-150 cases per million): eight counties, from highest to lowest: Sanilac, Lake, Alpena, Wexford, Leelanau, Chippewa, Huron and Oscoda.
  • Level C (40-70 cases per million): Crawford and Alcona.
  • Level B (20-40 cases per million): None.
  • Level A (7-20 cases per million): None.
  • Low (less than 7 cases per million): none.

The map below is shaded according to the six levels of the state. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported between October 25 and October 25. 31 increased or decreased compared to the previous seven days (October 18-24).

Readers can hover their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. If you don’t see the map, click here. (Tip: you can drag the map with your cursor to see the whole UP)

Latest news on coronavirus testing

Michigan’s seven-day average positivity rate is 7.2%. This means that 7.2% of coronavirus diagnostic tests come back positive.

The state now has 13 counties with a positivity rate above 10%, and a dwindling number of counties with a rate below 3%.

Below are the state’s six risk levels for coronavirus test positivity rates and a breakdown of Michigan’s 83 counties.

  • Level E (more than 20%): none.
  • Level D (15-20%): Delta.
  • Tier C (10-15%): 13 counties — highest to lowest, Muskegon, Dickinson, Gogebic, Ontonagon, Montmorency, Cass, Luce, Mecosta, Van Buren, Macomb, Calhoun, Iosco and Emmet.
  • Tier B (7-10%): 33 counties — Saginaw, Kent, Barry, Branch, Midland, Kalamazoo, Newaygo, Ottawa, St. Joseph, Allegan, Oceana, Otsego, Près Isle, Genesee, Osceola, Clinton, Berrien, Montcalm, Bay, Menominee, Oakland, Roscommon, Hillsdale, Benzie, Monroe, Eaton, Livingston, Ionia, Grand Traverse, St Clair, Jackson, Marquette and Iron.
  • Tier A (3-7%): 33 counties — highest to lowest, Arenac, Shiawassee, Isabella, Wayne, Tuscola, Lapeer, Kalkaska, Charlevoix, Mason, Ingham, Houghton, Missaukee, Clare, Mackinac, Sanilac, Alcona, Lenawee, Cheboygan, Lake, Schoolcraft, Gratiot, Chippewa, Gladwin, Wexford, Leelanau, Antrim, Washtenaw, Huron, Crawford, Manistee, Alpena, Ogemaw and Keweenaw.
  • Low (less than 3%): three departments — from highest to lowest, Oscoda, Algiers and Baraga.

The searchable database below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. If you don’t see the table, click here.

Below are online databases that allow readers to search county-level data for each of the past 20 days.

Cases per day it was reported to the state

The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 20 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first fell ill a few days prior.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases. (As of Sept. 1, the state stopped reporting numbers on Sundays.)

(In a few cases, a county reported a negative (decreasing) number of new daily cases, following retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In these cases, we subtracted cases of the previous date and put 0 in the reported date.)

The following table below shows new cases in the past 20 days based on symptom onset. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the lag between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.

More localized maps

Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan Department of Epidemiology, which has access to subcounty data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

The interactive maps break the state down into 10 kilometer hexagons to provide a more localized view of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to access the research project website.

The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases over the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.

You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Last daily report

On Saturday, the state reported 3,792 new coronavirus cases and 31 new deaths.

The state’s seven-day average is now 2,879 new cases per day, a new high, from an average of 1,876 a week ago.

The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the numbers behind it.

For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, visit the state’s online test finder, here, email [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. h on weekdays.

For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.

Learn more about MLive:

These October measures set off alarm bells over Michigan’s coronavirus outbreak

Michigan sets new records for coronavirus cases. Why are deaths and hospitalizations still so lower in the spring?

Will Michigan’s coronavirus outbreak impact Tuesday’s election?

6 reasons why Michigan is seeing an increase in the number of coronaviruses

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