Thursday, November 12, coronavirus data by Michigan county: Saginaw, Bay at 15% positivity rates

Saginaw and Bay counties are now among Michigan’s 17 counties with an average positivity rate of 15% or more on coronavirus tests over the past seven days.

Other great counties already on this list include Macomb, Muskegon, Berrien and Van Buren.

A total of 57 counties of Michigan’s 83 counties are now above a 10% positivity rate and 80 are above a 5% seven-day average. The latter is the benchmark recommended by the World Health Organization for keeping schools and the economy safely reopened.

The state currently has a seven-day average positivity rate of 11.7% on coronavirus testing. That’s up from 8.4% a week ago.

The positivity rate is one of the measures used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services to assess coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by the MDHHS has six levels — “low” plus the AE levels.

Here’s a look at the seven-day average by county, broken down by state metric for positivity rates.

  • Level E (over 20%): Dickinson.
  • Tier D (15-20%): 16 counties, highest to lowest — Muskegon, Baraga, Ontonagon, Hillsdale, Delta, Berrien, Macomb, Branch, Otsego, Van Buren, Lake, Missaukee, Montmorency, Iosco, Saginaw and Bay.
  • Tier C (10-15%): 40 counties, highest to lowest — Monroe, St. Clair, Ottawa, Oceana, Allegan, Arenac, Cass, Newaygo, Calhoun, St. Joseph, Genesee, Barry, Kalamazoo, Lapeer, Kent, Midland, Livingston, Oakland, Marquette, Tuscola, Osceola, Emmet, Clare, Wexford, Grand Traverse, Menominee, Isabella, Kalkaska, Iron, Leelanau, Ionia, Crawford, Clinton, Shiawassee, Gogebic, Eaton, Luce, Lenawee , Wayne and Jackson,
  • Tier B (7-10%): 13 counties, highest to lowest — Roscommon, Mecosta, Près Isle, Antrim, Charlevoix, Oscoda, Alpena, Ingham, Montcalm, Keweenaw, Benzie, Huron and Gladwin.
  • Level A (3-7%): 13 counties — Ogemaw, Sanilac, Mackinac, Mason, Chippewa, Gratiot, Alcona, Washtenaw, Cheboygan, Manistee, Algiers, Houghton and Schoolcraft.
  • Low (less than 3%): none.

The map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. If you don’t see the map, click here.

New cases per capita

New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.

In this metric — which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents — all 83 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The threshold for level E is 150 cases per day per million population.

Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population.

Don’t see the graph? Click here.

Current scores are based on new cases reported from November 5-11. The map below is shaded according to the six levels of the state. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the past seven days has increased or decreased compared to the previous seven days (October 29-November 4).

Readers can hover their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. If you don’t see the map, click here. (Tip: you can drag the map with your cursor to see the whole UP)

Overall MDHHS score by region

The MDHHS assigned an overall score to each of the MI Start regions in the state, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency room visits. for symptoms of COVID-19.

The overall scores were last updated on November 7.

The MDHHS has placed the Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo areas and the Upper Peninsula at Level E and the other five areas of the state are at Level D in terms of overall coronavirus risk.

This interactive map shows these eight regions and their current scores. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.

(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is Detroit Area; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City Region 7, Lansing and Region 8, Upper Peninsula.)

Below are online databases that allow readers to search county-level data for each of the past 20 days.

Cases per day it was reported to the state

The first is a graph showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 20 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first fell ill a few days prior.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases. (As of Sept. 1, the state stopped reporting numbers on Sundays.)

(In a few cases, a county reported a negative (decreasing) number of new daily cases, following retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In these cases, we subtracted cases of the previous date and put 0 in the reported date.)

The following table below shows new cases in the past 20 days based on symptom onset. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete due to the lag between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.

You can call up a graph for any county and you can hover your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.

More localized maps

Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at the University of Michigan Department of Epidemiology, which has access to subcounty data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

The interactive maps break the state down into 10 kilometer hexagons to provide a more localized view of where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to access the research project website.

The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases over the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.

You can use the triangle button at the top right of the map to switch to the second map, which shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Last daily report

On Wednesday, Nov. 11, the state reported 6,008 new coronavirus cases and 42 new deaths.

The map below shows the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can hover your cursor over a county to see the numbers behind it.

For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, visit the state’s online test finder, here, email [email protected], or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. h on weekdays.

For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.

Learn more about MLive:

Michigan records new single-day high of 6,225 coronavirus cases

Rise in coronavirus cases prompt Kent County Probate Court to halt in-person hearings

How COVID-19 has changed the future of education

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